Monday, 8 December 2008

LDP In The Shit

Oh look, Aso's cabinet is sinking faster than a granite sand-castle, who could have forseen that? (Answer: almost anyone.) In the last month, his cabinet's approval rating has halved, falling from 40.5% to 20.9%, and his disapproval rate has increased by half, from 42.2% to 61.3%.

By contrast, the DPJ's support in the next election now outweighs the LDP's, 40% (a ten point increase) to 24% (an eight point drop). As for the role of Prime Minister, Ozawa's support is now at 36% (a fourteen point increase) to Aso's 29% (a twenty-one point drop). So, not only are the public losing faith in Aso, but they're actually warming to Ozawa. Incredibly. All these figures are from the Yomiuri poll, but the Asahi poll shows similar figures.

Obviously this is all very bad news for the LDP. I mean, obviously. I wrote before about how the approval rating spike with the change of leadership would wear off, but it's only taken around two months. It all seems to be down to Aso's decision to not call a general election, and his economic shenanigans, like postponing the submission of a second extra budget (a decision which got a 55.7% disapproval rating). Silly, silly Aso.

Aso's "why does everyone hate me? face"

So where to now? Well apparently some LDP politicans are thinking of rebellion. But it looks like that's not going to happen before a general election. We'll have to wait for a probable January election, and if the LDP manage to scrape through that then the party will most likely grudgingly hold together, complaining all the while. If the DPJ scrape a win, however, it might be curtains for the LDP.